On October 15th, 2023, Poland held parliamentary elections. The rightwing populist Law and Justice Party (PiS) won 194 seats (35.38% of the vote), while the Civic Coalition (KO), led by former Polish Prime Minster Donald Tusk, won 157 seats (30.7%). This means that, for the first time since 2015, the PiS does not have enough seats to form a coalition in the Polish Parliament. Instead, the Civic Coalition, Third Way and The Left parties have pledged to form a coalition government, improve relations with the European Union, and reinvigorate democracy.
The election also held major implications for voter turnout since a record 74.4% of voters participated—the highest turnout since the fall of Communism. This record turnout also featured a high number of young voters.
The PiS party quickly instituted an acting prime minister named Mateusz Morawiecki, but he is sure to be ousted once the KO finally forms a government. The opposition denounced the moved as a farce, claiming that the PiS (which holds the Presidency until 2025) named a prime minister only to delay and delegitimatize the future ruling coalition.
This election is significant for Poland and the future of its democracy. The country could soon see an improvement in civil liberties, increased participation in the EU, and renewed support for Ukraine (the PiS had begun to waver leading up to the election). PiS, often characterized as a populist rightwing party, has dominated Polish politics since 2015 and sought to impose catholic values. They have been criticized by the EU and Polish opposition for dismantling Polish democracy. The party also came under scrutiny for their handling of human rights, for example by establishing so-called “anti-LGBTQ zones.”
The PiS defeat is also likely to improve Poland’s relations with the European Union. The KO and its coalition partners have promised a renewed plan of action to reinvigorate Polish participation in the Union. This includes €30 billion in COVID-19 aid that was denied due to the PiS attack on the judiciary–leading the European Commission to trigger article 7 of the European Treaty. Many anticipate that Poland will now play a more constructive role in EU affairs especially on the topic of Ukraine and EU expansion.
These recent developments illustrate several of Jan-Werner Müller’s arguments in his 2016 book, What is Populism? The Law and Justice Party has regularly resorted to a populist playbook to govern. Müller argues that populists “seek to moralize political conflict as much as possible” (Müller 2016: 42). Müller (2016: 43) also observes that “populist will often eagerly frame a situation as a crisis, calling it an existential threat, because such a crisis then serves to legitimate populist governance.” Even the PiS party’s recent move to prevent the KO from forming a coalition can be seen as an effort to create a leadership crisis.
References
Allen, J. (2023, October 17). Poland just showed the world how democracy wins. Protect Democracy; https://www.facebook.com/protectdemocracy.org/. https://protectdemocracy.org/work/poland-democracy-wins/
Cienski, J. (2023, October 17). Poland election results: Opposition secures win, final count shows – POLITICO. POLITICO; POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-election-results-opposition-donald-tusk-wins-final-count-civic-platform-pis/
How Poland’s Election Results Could Reshape Europe | Council on Foreign Relations. (n.d.). Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved October 30, 2023, from https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/how-polands-election-results-could-reshape-europe
Kość, W. (2023, October 24). Poland’s opposition proposes forming new government – POLITICO. POLITICO; POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-tusk-andrzej-duda-poland-law-and-justice-opposition-proposes-new-government/
Maillard, S. (2023, October 17). Poland’s elections alter the balance of power in the EU. Chatham House; Chatham House. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/10/polands-elections-alter-balance-power-eu
Muller, J.-W. (2016). What Is Populism? University of Pennsylvania Press.
Picheta, R. (2023, October 15). Poland’s opposition has path to oust populist ruling party, exit poll shows | CNN. CNN; CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/15/europe/poland-election-voting-intl/index.html
Poland election: Tusk’s opposition eyes power after pivotal vote – BBC News. (2023, October 16). BBC News; BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67123584
Reuters. (2023, November 27). Morawiecki’s new Polish government sworn in before confidence vote | Reuters. Reuters; Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-president-swear-govt-opposition-condemns-farce-2023-11-27/
Schmitz, R. (2023, October 21). As Europe applauds Poland’s election results, civil rights groups prepare to fight. National Public Radio ; NPR. https://www.npr.org/2023/10/21/1207263724/poland-election-tusk-lgbtq-abortion-rights
Walker, S. (2023, October 16). Poland election: Law and Justice party on course to be ousted from power | Poland | The Guardian. The Guardian; The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/16/poland-election-results-law-and-justice-party-donald-tusk-coalition
Hi Joseph.
I really enjoyed reading your work. Your blog talks about Poland’s recent elections, which were an important part of the country’s history. The Law and Justice Party (PiS), which was in charge for a long time, has now stepped down, ending their divided rule. There is hope for a more balanced, open, and democratic future in Poland now that a diverse union has formed. The high number of voters, especially young people, shows how important democracy is and how much people’s opinions truly matter. Drawing on Jan-Werner Müller’s ideas about populism, your analysis makes it easy to understand what the PiS is doing and how a strong Polish democracy might come back to life.
Hi Joseph. I enjoyed reading your post, as I don’t really know much about Polish politics. I found the post to be very informative and offer context to the changing political landscape in Poland. Your argument was that the recent October 2023 elections may signal a shift in which Poland moves away from its populist and arguably anti-democratic Law and Justice Party (PiS) towards a more inclusive and democratic coalition of various opposition parties. This shift may bring Poland closer to the European Union, as under the PiS, Poland’s shift away from democracy led to a shift away from the EU. Your additional analysis of how the PiS led Poland, threatening democracy under the guise of protecting the country from a “crisis” as opposed to how opposition parties may lead Poland, improving civil liberties and the relationship with the EU, demonstrates the danger that populism poses to democracy.
Hey Joseph
This is written well and the information is nice and in a digestible format so hats off. In all fairness I may be a little biased in you favor as I find Poland and it’s democratic situation interesting. I’ve written a little bit on it and as someone who is concerned with a world exhibiting new ways in which our and other’s democracies’ integrity comes under threat (as I imagine you are as well) it is refreshing to see a light in the growing darkness. This was the first time I’m hearing of this and it definitely looks like an interesting topic to keep a close eye on. I like your analysis on the PIS party, their reign, and the emergent opposition along with its goals. The relation of the two to the EU is specifically an interesting topic to me personally and the relationship of both were mentioned. It will be interesting to see in the future if this trend could follow in other countries effected by demagogues such as Hungary or Turkey. Perhaps it might only be a specific thing to Poland, but even as such it will be interesting to see why this change had occurred. Overall nice stuff.
Hi Joseph,
I appreciated this brief but inciteful summary about politics in Poland, concentrating on the most recent election. I had been loosely following the political situation in Poland so this blog post was a great recap of recent events and the context surrounding them. I agree with your prediction that Poland could be entering into an era of increased improvement in civil liberties and more support for Ukraine. It will be interesting to see in the coming months what priorities the new Prime Minister will address first. I would assume the issue of abortion will be high on the radar as that has been such a highly contested issue in Polish politics. I would also hope for LGBTQ+ rights to return under this new leadership as the Law and Justice party had a particularly anti-LGBTQ+ stance. Hopefully previously eroded democratic institutions and civil liberties will be able to return under new parliamentary leadership.
This post presents a thorough overview of Poland’s recent parliamentary elections, marking a pivotal moment in the nation’s political sphere. I also wrote my blog post on the recent Polish elections, so it was interesting to read about how you interpreted it. The Law and Justice Party’s inability to secure a majority, a departure from their past successes since 2015, hints at a potential shift in governance and a potential revitalization of democratic values. The PiS’s defeat suggests the prospect of improved relations between Poland and the EU, with the chance to address previously withheld COVID-19 aid. This shift away from PiS policies, criticized for their impact on democracy and human rights, presents an opportunity for Poland to assume a more positive role within the EU, especially concerning issues like Ukraine and broader European affairs. Your analysis effectively references Müller’s insights on populism, showcasing how the PiS exploits crises for political legitimacy. Overall, your post shines a light on a potential resurgence of democracy in Poland, providing a beacon amid the troubling trend of democratic decline in various other nations. Excellent work!
Hi Joe,
Your blog highlighted an extremely important event. One of the first sentences in your blog is extremely interesting to me – that a record turn out of voters, about 74%, turned out in favor of democracy. That is an extremely high turnout for elections in general. This is an impressive display of the will, desire, and need for democracy. This brings to mind the essay “The signs of deconsolidation,” by Roberto Stefan Foa and Yascha Mounk. They discuss how internationally, people are becoming dissatisfied with democracy as they have experienced it applied politically and socially. In an evaluation of surveys, they found that people also generally approve of or prefer democracy as an idea, but significantly less approved of it as it had been working in their country (practically). So, considering these trends, this brings hope for a wave of practical democratization, not just the ideological approval of it.