Indonesia’s next president, Prabowo Subianto, won the recent election backed by current president Joko Widodo, due to his choice of running mate: Widodo’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka. However, up until a few months ago, 36 year old Raka would not have been allowed to run, as the age minimum was 40 years old. That was until the Constitutional Court added exemptions to this rule three days prior to the nominations being due. The last minute addition of Raka on the ballet adds on further concerns about Subianto’s ties to the repressive Suharto regime and his prior abuses against democracy, creating the worry that a demagogue has already been elected to office and it may be too late to stop democratic backsliding.
The Constitutional Court’s decision was just one of many government actions that provided assistance for Subianto and Raka over other candidates. Widodo’s brother-in-law and Raka’s uncle, Anwar Usman, serves on the Constitutional Court that made the decision to allow Raka to run. Usman used to be the chief justice, until he was stripped of his role for ethics violations. However, he was allowed to remain on the court and still holds considerable influence over the other justices. After the court gave Raka the ability to serve as Subianto’s running mate, Widodo started providing vocal support for Subianto, boosting Subianto in the polls.
Allowing Raka to serve as running mate to Subianto shows signs of stealth authoritarianism taking over Indonesia politics. The use of the courts to change the rules in favor of one candidate is the most prevalent sign. Although it cannot be proven that Widodo or Raka took action in order to get the court to allow Raka to run, the link between Widodo, Raka, and Usman is too tight to ignore the possibility that this is Widodo’s grip on the future presidency, another sign of future demagoguery. It also provides support that Subianto and Raka will be more likely to change the rules of the game in the future in order to benefit themselves over the people.
Not only has Raka’s addition to the ballot been suspicious, but so is Subianto’s past, specifically his ties to the dictatorship and human rights abuses. The past government, the New Order, was ruled over by Suharto. Many Indonesians are grateful for democracy after the abuses committed during the New Order. However, Indonesia’s youngest voting population is less influenced by the past. First, Subianto gained recognition during Suharto’s rule, especially through his marriage to Suharto’s daughter, keeping the ties to the dictatorship close through family. Second, Subianto himself has been found to have committed human rights abuses, including the kidnapping of 23 democracy advocates. His actions promoting his own interests over the interests of the people seem to have been forgotten as he continued to gain popularity in the polls.
Subianto’s actions and his ties to the dictatorship provide further support for stealth authoritarianism taking hold into Indonesian politics. In the two past elections Subianto lost to Widodo. He claimed the election was fake and voter fraud led to Widodo’s win. Subianto’s followers instigated riots that left eight dead, causing Widodo to give Subianto the defense minister position in order to sedate the riots. His past platforms were based on power, using his ads to call out communism while he rides on the back of a stallion. These baseless call-outs against his opponents show the demagoguery hidden behind his new cuddly persona that won him the most recent election.
This new persona of Subianto is the most probable reason he was able to win the election besides adding Raka to the ballet. By hiding his past authoritarian tendencies, Subianto has created the new persona of a sweet old grandpa who cares for the people. Memes of Subianto as a bunny, or animated in ‘cutesy’ styles, provided plenty of visual biases for the younger generations who do not remember Subianto as the man who once rode the stallion calling for the end of foreign interference in Indonesia, or as the man with clear ties to the past dictatorship and human rights abuses.
Indonesia’s next five, and maybe ten, years are left to Subianto. Subianto can very well continue the policies of Widodo and keep strong democratic practices in Indonesia. Some occasional illiberal actions may have taken place prior to the election, but now that Subianto is in power he may continue Indonesia’s democratic trends. However, Subianto could also use his term to consolidate more power. The illiberal trends pre-election may continue if Subianto sees a threat against running for a second term. This is nothing new in Indonesian politics. The New Order only ended 30 years ago, each election cycle democracy is questioned, but the government is able to hold itself together through checks and balances, even if some corruption is prevalent.
JOSIAH PATRICK BAGAYAS
The political drama that unfolded in the 2024 Indonesian general election was stranger than fiction especially when former political rivals, Jokowi and Prabowo became allies even if the former did not overtly endorse the latter’s presidential candidacy. After losing twice to Jokowi in the 2014 and 2019 elections, Prabowo has finally won his presidential bid this time with Jokowi’s son, Gibran, as his running mate. These plot twists in Indonesia’s political landscape are both amusing and bewildering.
While elections have been regularly conducted in Southeast Asia’s largest democracy since the fall of Suharto’s regime, observers argue that the quality of democracy in Indonesia has been in serious decline since. The lack of clear ideological competition in Indonesia’s electoral politics, for instance, makes it easier for political parties and candidates to switch sides and build temporary coalitions with the ultimate aim of winning the elections. The 2024 presidential election is doubtless a continuation of this trend in the Indonesian political landscape.
It may be uncalled for to prejudge Prabowo’s incoming leadership as Indonesia’s president-elect. But the baggage that he carries with him to the presidency, his involvement in Suharto’s brutal regime, is a telltale sign of what might be in store for Indonesia. While there is hope for a better democratic governance, Prabowo’s past should serve as a cautionary tale for his future style of leadership. Who knows? We might be wrong.
Chris Kiss
I agree that we should be worried about future Indonesia’s democracy in the future. I wonder how social cleavages within the country, along with rising prejudice and misinformation, could impact future electoral security.
Hopefully we are wrong though!
Alex Zelaya
The fact that Subianto has ties to a previous dictator is definitely a cause for concern in regards to how he may lead. Additionally the court changing rules so Raka can run with him does seem indicative of backsliding. Overall it seems that Indonesia could be headed for further backsliding unfortunately.